***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 27.9 27.7 27.5 0.1 51.8 50.4 26.2 27.5 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 27.7 27.2 27.6 0.1 50.9 49.9 25.7 27.2 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 27.7 27.3 27.6 0.0 49.5 48.5 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 20.7 20.1 24.5 -0.1 49.1 48.1 18.8 20.2 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.2 25.1 -0.5 43.3 43.2 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 26.9 25.9 22.7 -0.4 44.5 44.5 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.2 27.5 0.2 52.5 51.2 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 16.3 15.4 23.2 -0.4 45.1 44.8 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 27.8 27.0 25.9 -0.2 47.0 46.2 25.7 27.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 27.5 26.8 24.1 -0.2 47.7 46.9 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 27.8 26.4 25.1 -0.8 40.3 40.7 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 27.0 25.6 24.3 -0.8 40.0 40.5 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 28.2 26.3 24.1 -1.1 36.1 37.3 26.0 27.5 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 27.6 27.4 25.8 0.2 52.7 51.7 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.3 27.0 -0.1 48.8 48.1 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 28.7 27.0 24.5 -1.0 37.9 38.7 26.5 28.1 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.1 26.7 27.3 0.2 51.8 50.8 25.2 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 26.9 26.4 23.4 0.0 50.4 49.3 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 27.2 26.9 27.7 0.1 51.0 50.0 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.7 22.0 21.0 -0.1 48.4 47.9 20.6 22.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 27.8 27.2 26.9 -0.1 48.3 47.5 25.9 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 27.5 27.7 27.7 0.6 57.2 55.2 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 27.5 27.0 27.5 0.0 49.5 48.8 25.6 27.0 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 27.2 26.8 25.6 0.1 50.7 49.6 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 27.9 27.4 25.8 -0.1 48.8 48.0 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 27.6 26.3 24.0 -0.7 41.4 41.9 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 27.4 27.2 26.7 0.2 52.8 51.4 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.2 25.4 -0.3 46.5 46.1 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.3 21.8 22.5 0.1 50.7 49.8 20.1 21.8 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 27.6 27.2 27.7 0.1 51.8 50.6 25.6 27.1 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------