***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 27.0 27.4 27.5 -0.6 38.9 39.4 27.2 27.8 28.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 26.3 26.7 27.4 -0.8 35.2 36.3 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 26.4 26.8 27.6 -0.7 37.0 37.9 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 19.4 20.0 25.0 -0.4 40.4 40.4 19.6 20.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 26.7 27.0 25.4 -0.9 31.9 33.6 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 25.5 25.9 23.1 -0.5 37.3 38.3 25.7 26.5 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 26.1 26.6 27.4 -0.6 37.6 38.5 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.2 23.6 -0.7 35.3 36.5 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 26.3 26.7 26.0 -0.7 36.0 37.1 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 26.2 26.6 24.4 -0.6 38.1 38.8 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 26.1 26.4 25.3 -1.1 29.0 31.4 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 25.5 25.6 24.8 -1.1 28.9 31.5 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 26.3 26.4 24.4 -1.3 25.1 28.6 26.9 27.7 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 26.3 26.7 25.5 -0.5 38.9 39.6 26.4 27.2 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.1 27.2 -0.4 42.5 42.4 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 26.9 27.1 24.8 -1.1 26.9 29.8 27.4 28.3 29.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 25.7 26.1 27.1 -0.8 35.1 36.4 26.0 26.8 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.0 23.6 -0.5 40.2 40.4 25.6 26.5 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 25.9 26.3 27.5 -0.8 36.2 37.2 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.0 21.5 21.2 -0.6 37.7 38.3 21.3 22.1 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 26.4 26.8 26.8 -0.7 36.2 37.2 26.7 27.5 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.6 26.9 27.4 -0.4 43.1 42.9 26.4 27.3 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.2 26.6 27.4 -0.8 35.9 36.9 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 25.9 26.3 25.6 -0.6 38.5 39.2 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 26.4 26.9 25.7 -0.7 35.7 36.7 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 26.2 26.6 24.7 -0.8 34.0 36.2 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 26.1 26.6 26.6 -0.5 39.4 39.8 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 27.4 28.0 25.8 -0.5 39.1 39.5 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 20.7 21.2 22.6 -0.5 39.5 39.7 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 26.2 26.6 27.6 -0.7 37.5 38.3 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------