***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 14.2 21.4 12.8 132.5 73.7 56.1 6.1 10.9 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.1 21.7 12.9 141.8 75.8 58.9 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.3 18.8 15.0 150.1 77.4 59.5 4.5 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.0 16.8 12.5 129.9 73.0 53.6 3.4 7.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.8 15.4 12.4 132.5 73.6 54.2 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 14.6 13.6 121.8 70.8 52.7 3.8 7.5 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 17.3 20.2 12.4 137.3 75.0 58.0 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.8 29.8 14.3 126.9 72.0 54.8 7.3 14.5 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.2 14.2 14.5 140.9 75.6 55.4 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.4 22.8 16.2 131.8 73.3 55.5 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.2 15.9 11.1 131.3 73.3 53.5 4.1 7.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.4 19.7 11.4 136.6 74.5 53.8 5.4 9.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.2 11.7 11.8 139.3 75.3 56.0 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 25.3 31.6 20.8 150.2 77.5 60.3 6.6 12.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.2 16.6 9.8 123.5 71.4 46.1 2.4 6.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.2 14.8 11.8 140.1 75.4 54.7 2.6 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.9 23.8 13.9 149.8 77.4 59.1 3.8 8.4 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 24.7 19.7 133.9 73.8 56.7 6.2 11.7 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.9 21.3 13.9 145.8 76.6 58.9 4.4 8.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.3 23.5 17.2 123.1 70.8 57.5 7.7 13.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 17.7 22.2 14.3 147.2 76.9 58.2 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 19.7 14.3 135.5 74.6 56.5 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 19.3 25.0 16.1 159.5 79.3 60.2 4.8 9.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.1 27.6 19.6 154.3 78.1 59.3 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.6 15.3 12.9 122.9 71.3 54.1 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.8 8.5 128.4 72.8 54.1 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 22.7 13.7 127.4 72.4 55.1 7.0 12.1 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.0 14.3 11.9 132.0 73.5 49.5 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.5 32.3 19.9 130.6 72.8 57.9 7.7 15.1 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 14.8 22.6 12.6 137.8 74.9 57.2 6.8 11.5 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------