***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.7 15.4 11.2 107.2 68.2 46.2 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.7 13.7 11.2 112.8 69.2 50.0 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.8 18.3 10.8 101.9 66.6 46.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 14.3 8.6 83.8 61.0 42.4 4.8 9.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.3 15.1 9.6 98.9 65.4 43.7 4.4 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.3 10.4 90.6 62.3 45.0 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.9 13.5 10.7 106.2 67.5 49.8 3.4 7.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 9.5 23.5 11.4 94.8 63.0 45.6 10.1 16.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.9 18.6 10.8 100.6 66.1 44.8 5.0 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.9 20.2 12.4 94.8 63.4 45.9 6.9 13.2 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.9 13.8 8.1 91.2 62.6 43.6 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 4.5 14.8 8.0 87.2 61.2 42.5 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.6 11.0 8.5 91.4 63.3 44.7 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.9 20.6 14.1 100.3 65.4 47.6 7.2 13.1 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.7 8.3 7.4 85.0 62.6 40.8 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.6 11.2 7.6 84.8 61.1 42.8 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.1 8.3 11.6 109.2 68.3 50.6 2.3 4.5 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.9 19.1 14.0 91.7 62.0 47.7 8.6 14.2 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.6 17.4 11.3 112.8 69.3 49.0 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.2 18.2 14.0 92.9 60.8 47.0 8.1 13.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.8 16.8 10.7 98.9 66.1 44.9 4.9 9.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.5 17.1 11.8 109.3 68.3 50.2 4.5 9.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.5 14.9 11.3 108.7 68.3 47.3 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.7 18.4 12.3 94.7 63.5 46.6 6.3 12.0 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.5 17.0 12.2 103.2 67.2 45.9 4.2 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.0 8.3 6.3 84.4 61.1 41.6 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.9 16.6 12.5 105.8 67.9 47.2 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.4 10.1 7.6 80.4 60.3 41.4 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 13.0 25.2 14.7 93.2 61.8 48.4 12.8 19.6 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.3 12.9 10.6 107.1 67.6 47.8 3.0 6.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------