***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 77.6 89.9 73.5 143.5 77.7 68.1 37.7 53.6 71.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 74.1 84.7 66.4 142.2 77.6 67.6 46.0 58.6 72.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 90.8 107.1 74.3 145.5 78.8 68.0 45.9 63.7 84.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 62.6 84.7 64.4 129.6 73.2 63.3 39.0 54.9 74.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 77.3 91.1 69.9 143.8 78.2 67.7 39.8 55.4 72.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 61.8 66.2 71.9 127.7 73.3 65.8 32.2 44.4 58.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 75.4 84.5 64.8 137.1 75.8 67.5 41.9 56.0 72.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 110.2 124.6 80.0 136.1 76.4 67.4 61.2 81.7 105.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 74.3 91.9 78.6 150.4 80.4 70.0 39.1 53.5 70.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 100.5 118.3 88.1 142.5 78.6 69.0 56.8 75.3 96.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 69.5 81.3 67.2 140.8 77.5 67.8 36.9 50.4 66.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 69.5 80.0 63.8 137.7 76.8 67.6 31.8 46.4 64.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 56.4 65.9 67.1 142.8 78.2 69.1 26.1 37.7 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 107.8 124.1 95.4 140.8 77.7 66.9 62.8 82.1 103.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 42.0 56.8 52.8 123.7 70.5 59.9 22.1 35.1 51.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 55.5 62.6 63.3 136.5 76.0 66.6 28.6 39.6 52.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 65.6 72.3 64.8 137.2 75.9 65.4 34.7 46.9 60.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 88.6 102.5 95.8 137.4 78.0 67.9 50.7 66.9 84.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 81.3 95.1 68.5 142.5 77.7 67.2 45.7 61.1 78.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 85.4 91.1 89.4 129.1 74.6 65.9 50.4 64.7 80.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 79.9 97.6 76.4 148.7 79.6 68.9 40.9 56.9 75.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 73.2 79.4 63.7 130.9 73.5 63.3 40.0 54.0 70.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 80.5 89.6 73.4 143.1 77.8 67.4 51.5 63.8 77.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 110.8 133.2 90.1 146.5 80.1 69.0 59.0 80.0 103.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 75.2 85.5 76.4 137.8 75.8 66.2 41.6 56.1 72.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 42.3 56.1 49.4 123.5 70.7 62.7 25.7 37.3 51.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 83.8 96.1 77.6 138.6 76.2 67.0 44.9 61.3 80.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 44.6 59.3 60.6 128.6 72.7 62.5 27.4 38.9 52.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 118.0 132.4 96.9 133.4 76.7 66.8 67.0 88.2 111.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 77.0 86.7 67.4 142.2 77.6 68.0 48.9 61.2 74.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------