***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 13.6 13.8 15.8 -1.0 30.8 32.5 13.9 14.6 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 12.7 12.8 15.6 -1.2 27.7 29.6 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 14.5 14.6 15.6 -1.2 27.0 28.9 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 9.5 9.6 13.6 -1.1 28.1 29.9 9.9 11.0 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.7 11.8 14.0 -0.9 30.6 32.4 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 10.4 10.4 11.5 -1.3 23.8 25.5 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 12.9 13.1 15.8 -1.1 28.1 29.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 4.9 5.0 11.4 -1.3 26.2 27.8 5.5 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.2 14.5 -0.8 33.3 34.8 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 12.8 12.9 12.4 -1.0 30.0 31.5 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 12.7 12.8 13.3 -1.0 29.5 31.1 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 10.4 10.5 12.2 -1.2 27.0 28.6 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.5 -0.9 29.4 31.0 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 13.0 13.0 13.7 -1.4 21.8 23.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.2 15.2 -0.8 31.3 33.0 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 12.9 13.0 13.2 -1.0 29.2 31.0 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 13.2 13.3 15.2 -1.3 25.6 27.6 13.7 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 11.1 11.2 11.4 -1.1 27.5 29.1 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 13.1 13.1 15.5 -1.2 26.8 28.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 6.9 7.0 9.3 -1.2 27.0 28.7 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 12.7 12.8 15.3 -1.1 28.4 30.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 12.4 12.5 15.2 -1.3 24.1 26.1 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 12.3 12.3 15.2 -1.3 24.3 26.3 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.6 -1.3 24.5 26.2 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 12.3 12.5 14.6 -1.0 29.8 31.5 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 11.6 11.6 12.0 -1.1 27.1 29.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.4 15.2 -0.9 31.5 33.1 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 11.8 11.9 14.3 -1.0 28.1 29.9 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 9.1 9.1 10.7 -1.2 25.1 26.8 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.9 -1.1 28.4 30.2 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------