***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 15.1 15.6 17.5 -0.4 42.2 43.3 15.3 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.1 17.9 -0.1 48.4 47.8 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 16.2 16.9 17.4 -0.4 41.3 42.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 11.5 11.6 15.2 -1.0 28.7 33.1 11.9 12.8 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 12.9 13.4 15.1 -0.7 34.0 37.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.2 12.4 13.6 -0.7 34.0 37.1 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.5 17.9 0.0 49.0 48.1 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.3 7.8 13.4 -0.5 37.5 40.5 7.6 8.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.6 15.4 -0.7 35.8 39.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 14.0 14.5 13.9 -0.6 37.1 40.3 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 13.9 14.4 14.8 -0.6 37.4 40.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.4 14.4 -0.6 35.4 38.5 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 13.6 13.7 13.9 -0.8 32.2 35.5 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 14.8 15.3 15.5 -0.5 39.9 42.5 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 15.2 15.1 15.5 -1.3 23.0 28.1 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 14.5 14.7 14.6 -0.8 33.1 36.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.2 17.7 0.2 53.3 51.6 15.2 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.2 13.2 -0.5 38.5 41.5 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.2 17.7 -0.2 46.1 46.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.2 11.7 -0.4 40.6 42.7 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 14.0 14.5 16.5 -0.6 37.3 39.9 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.0 17.4 0.0 49.6 49.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 14.0 14.6 17.2 -0.4 42.1 43.9 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 14.4 15.0 15.3 -0.5 39.1 41.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.6 15.8 -0.6 36.6 39.2 14.4 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.4 13.9 -0.9 30.8 34.5 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.0 14.6 16.6 -0.4 40.4 42.0 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 12.9 12.9 15.4 -1.2 25.4 30.2 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 11.3 11.9 12.7 -0.4 40.8 43.1 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.5 17.9 -0.2 46.1 46.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------