***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 14.5 14.5 16.9 -0.9 21.7 26.5 14.8 15.2 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 13.6 13.7 17.0 -0.9 24.5 28.5 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 15.6 15.4 16.7 -1.1 19.2 23.8 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 10.7 10.3 14.7 -1.3 13.1 17.0 11.3 11.9 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 12.5 12.3 14.7 -1.1 17.1 21.2 12.9 13.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 11.6 11.4 13.0 -1.1 16.6 20.5 12.0 12.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 14.2 14.2 17.1 -0.8 25.7 29.8 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 6.6 6.4 12.7 -1.1 17.8 21.6 7.0 7.6 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 13.8 13.6 15.1 -1.0 19.3 23.4 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 13.7 13.5 13.4 -1.0 19.2 23.2 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 13.5 13.4 14.3 -1.0 19.8 23.4 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 11.4 11.2 13.7 -1.1 17.2 20.8 11.8 12.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 12.9 12.7 13.5 -1.0 17.1 20.7 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 14.3 14.0 14.9 -1.1 16.6 20.7 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 14.8 14.3 15.4 -1.4 11.2 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 13.8 13.6 14.2 -1.0 17.6 21.3 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 14.6 14.6 16.7 -0.8 26.6 30.6 14.9 15.4 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 12.2 12.0 12.6 -1.0 19.0 23.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 13.9 13.9 16.8 -1.0 22.4 26.6 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 8.1 7.9 10.9 -1.0 19.1 23.6 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 13.6 13.4 16.0 -1.1 17.5 22.2 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 13.6 13.6 16.5 -0.9 23.1 27.4 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 13.4 13.3 16.4 -1.1 18.9 23.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 13.7 13.5 14.6 -1.1 17.4 21.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 13.5 13.4 15.3 -1.0 17.7 22.6 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 12.6 12.3 13.3 -1.1 13.7 17.7 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 13.3 13.2 16.1 -0.9 21.1 25.8 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 12.6 12.2 15.1 -1.4 12.2 15.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 10.7 10.6 12.1 -1.0 19.8 23.9 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 14.1 14.1 17.1 -0.9 23.4 27.6 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------