***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 24.6 23.9 24.3 -3.0 12.6 15.8 25.8 26.9 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 23.5 22.5 24.2 -3.2 12.7 16.0 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 23.3 22.4 24.1 -3.3 12.2 15.4 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 16.7 15.6 22.0 -3.3 9.3 12.4 18.2 19.4 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 23.9 23.1 22.8 -3.0 12.8 16.0 25.3 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 22.6 22.0 20.6 -2.9 13.4 16.2 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 23.3 22.3 24.2 -3.0 12.9 16.5 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 12.2 11.5 20.7 -3.2 12.7 15.5 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 23.3 22.5 23.6 -3.0 13.3 16.5 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 23.6 23.0 21.6 -3.2 13.1 16.1 24.9 26.1 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 23.7 23.0 22.6 -2.9 13.8 16.7 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 23.1 22.5 21.9 -3.0 13.5 16.3 24.4 25.6 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 23.8 23.3 22.0 -2.8 14.7 17.5 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 23.2 21.8 22.1 -3.8 9.1 12.6 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 24.6 23.0 23.5 -3.6 6.9 10.1 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 24.4 23.7 22.4 -2.9 13.8 16.7 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 23.0 22.0 23.9 -3.1 12.4 16.0 24.3 25.7 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 22.7 21.9 20.5 -3.4 12.3 15.4 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 23.0 22.0 24.0 -3.3 12.2 15.3 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 92 8 0 100 18.1 17.1 18.3 -3.5 11.0 13.7 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 23.4 22.5 24.0 -3.3 12.0 15.2 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 23.1 21.9 23.5 -3.4 10.6 14.1 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 23.3 22.1 23.6 -3.5 10.8 14.0 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 23.0 22.0 22.3 -3.5 11.3 14.7 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 92 8 0 100 23.4 22.5 22.9 -3.2 11.2 14.3 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 23.6 23.0 21.4 -2.9 13.9 16.7 24.8 26.1 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 23.1 22.2 23.6 -3.1 12.0 15.1 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 24.6 23.3 22.8 -3.3 8.8 12.1 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 17.9 17.0 19.6 -3.4 12.0 15.0 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 23.4 22.4 24.4 -3.1 13.1 16.3 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------