***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 26.5 27.1 29.0 -0.8 37.0 40.8 26.8 27.9 29.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 26.5 27.4 29.3 -0.5 43.0 45.1 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 26.3 26.7 28.9 -1.0 34.8 39.2 26.6 27.7 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 18.9 18.7 27.0 -1.7 23.3 29.9 19.5 20.8 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 26.4 26.5 27.0 -1.4 26.7 32.8 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 25.1 25.1 24.7 -1.5 24.3 30.8 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 26.2 27.4 29.3 -0.3 44.8 46.3 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.5 25.2 -1.4 27.6 33.4 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 26.3 26.4 27.2 -1.3 29.1 34.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 26.2 26.3 25.9 -1.3 29.2 34.7 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 26.2 26.2 26.5 -1.3 27.9 33.7 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 25.5 25.5 26.2 -1.5 25.8 32.1 26.0 27.1 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 26.3 26.1 25.7 -1.7 22.8 29.9 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 26.3 26.6 26.8 -1.1 33.5 38.4 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 27.0 26.8 27.5 -1.8 21.2 27.6 27.7 28.9 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 27.0 26.9 26.3 -1.6 24.5 31.1 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 25.9 27.2 29.2 -0.2 47.0 47.8 26.3 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.4 25.5 25.1 -1.2 30.7 36.0 25.6 26.7 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 26.0 26.8 29.2 -0.6 40.4 43.3 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 20.8 20.8 23.0 -1.3 28.0 33.9 21.2 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 26.3 26.5 28.2 -1.2 30.0 35.6 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 26.4 27.4 28.9 -0.5 42.7 45.0 26.7 27.9 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 26.3 26.8 28.7 -0.9 36.8 40.7 26.6 27.6 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 25.9 26.1 26.8 -1.1 32.2 37.2 26.1 27.2 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 26.3 26.6 27.3 -1.2 29.6 35.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 26.1 25.8 25.8 -1.7 21.3 29.0 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 26.0 26.5 28.1 -0.9 35.4 39.6 26.3 27.5 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 27.1 26.9 27.2 -1.8 21.8 28.4 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 20.5 20.7 24.0 -1.2 30.8 36.1 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 26.2 27.1 29.4 -0.6 41.0 43.6 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------