***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 26.8 26.5 26.9 -1.6 16.9 22.4 27.2 27.8 28.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 26.2 26.0 27.1 -1.5 20.9 25.8 26.7 27.4 28.2 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 26.0 25.6 26.8 -1.8 15.0 20.1 26.6 27.4 28.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 18.8 17.9 24.9 -2.2 9.0 13.6 19.7 20.5 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 26.3 25.6 25.1 -2.0 11.8 16.6 27.1 27.9 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 25.0 24.3 23.0 -1.9 10.9 15.5 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 26.1 26.0 27.1 -1.4 22.4 27.4 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 14.4 13.8 23.3 -1.9 12.1 16.9 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 25.8 25.2 25.5 -1.9 12.8 17.6 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 25.7 25.1 24.0 -1.9 12.6 17.4 26.4 27.3 28.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 25.9 25.3 24.7 -1.9 12.9 17.8 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 25.1 24.6 24.4 -1.9 12.0 16.7 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 26.1 25.4 24.0 -2.0 11.3 15.9 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 25.8 25.3 24.8 -2.0 11.1 16.2 26.5 27.2 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 26.9 25.8 25.6 -2.5 6.9 11.3 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 26.6 25.9 24.5 -2.0 11.6 16.2 27.5 28.4 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 25.6 25.5 26.9 -1.3 23.2 28.5 26.1 26.9 27.6 29 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 25.0 24.4 23.2 -1.9 12.3 17.2 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 25.7 25.4 26.9 -1.7 18.6 23.6 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 20.6 19.8 21.1 -2.0 11.3 16.1 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 26.0 25.4 26.3 -2.0 12.5 17.6 26.7 27.6 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 26.0 25.7 26.6 -1.6 18.9 24.6 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 25.8 25.4 26.4 -1.9 14.9 20.1 26.5 27.2 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 25.4 24.8 24.8 -1.9 12.1 17.1 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 26.1 25.4 25.3 -1.9 12.2 17.4 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 25.8 25.1 23.9 -2.1 10.0 14.4 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 25.8 25.4 26.1 -1.7 15.6 21.1 26.4 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 26.9 25.9 25.2 -2.3 8.2 12.7 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 20.2 19.5 22.2 -1.9 12.1 17.1 21.0 21.8 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 26.0 25.8 27.1 -1.6 19.8 24.7 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------