***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 29.0 61.3 43.9 300.7 93.8 88.4 6.0 12.0 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 29.2 57.9 35.0 261.8 91.7 84.3 6.1 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 34.6 64.9 40.9 276.9 92.5 87.5 7.8 14.9 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 31.9 65.9 46.6 274.0 92.7 87.1 5.7 12.2 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 32.8 59.9 41.6 244.3 90.3 85.4 5.8 12.6 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 28.7 43.2 38.6 214.9 87.5 84.1 5.9 11.6 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 30.3 60.4 36.3 275.8 92.8 84.4 7.6 14.2 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 37.8 55.3 36.2 202.6 86.0 81.7 9.0 17.1 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 30.3 46.9 40.3 234.0 89.0 84.5 8.3 14.4 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 38.5 59.3 42.1 220.7 87.9 84.0 8.8 16.7 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 28.7 48.9 36.3 230.0 88.9 83.7 5.6 11.7 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 20.3 31.3 31.1 210.0 86.7 81.6 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 26.2 40.1 36.3 220.7 88.1 84.7 4.9 10.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 43.0 70.7 46.1 254.1 91.0 87.4 11.1 19.5 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 19.9 46.9 46.8 285.4 93.5 86.8 2.8 6.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 22.8 36.7 36.2 225.6 89.0 84.2 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 20.2 33.3 30.1 214.7 87.2 77.7 5.4 10.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 31.1 49.5 47.0 233.3 89.3 85.7 6.8 13.1 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 33.0 63.1 36.1 260.0 91.3 85.2 6.6 13.6 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 28.3 42.3 41.6 219.1 88.3 84.8 7.4 13.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 29.2 52.8 42.9 268.4 91.7 86.8 6.7 12.5 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 24.0 39.9 31.4 221.9 87.6 80.1 5.0 10.4 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 29.5 49.9 38.0 254.6 90.6 86.2 6.7 12.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 47.0 76.4 45.4 252.4 90.9 86.8 12.3 21.6 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 31.7 61.7 50.2 280.7 93.2 88.0 7.2 13.4 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 25.1 39.2 32.5 223.3 88.4 84.7 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 34.5 68.5 48.5 295.1 93.9 88.2 8.6 15.6 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 20.2 39.0 42.5 259.7 92.0 85.8 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 41.8 65.7 45.2 228.3 89.1 85.7 9.3 17.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 27.3 54.3 37.4 279.4 93.0 86.2 6.2 11.8 19.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------