***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.4 17.2 15.8 155.3 78.5 56.3 5.1 8.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.0 20.8 13.9 140.4 75.4 53.7 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.2 28.7 17.1 163.2 79.8 59.1 7.6 12.8 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 21.5 20.1 160.1 79.3 59.5 4.5 8.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.0 23.1 19.9 146.8 77.0 59.2 4.2 8.7 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.8 13.7 28.2 170.1 80.8 66.7 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.5 15.7 12.7 117.9 70.3 52.0 5.7 9.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 25.2 29.0 20.9 135.1 74.5 61.1 6.0 12.4 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.3 16.8 19.6 141.2 76.0 58.0 3.3 6.9 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.1 23.3 22.6 134.7 74.7 60.4 4.4 9.6 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.5 16.5 18.4 145.2 76.8 59.7 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 15.5 19.4 16.6 145.9 76.7 61.1 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 9.9 13.1 20.1 158.2 79.0 64.3 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 24.0 29.0 20.5 139.5 75.5 61.4 8.3 14.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 8.4 12.9 19.9 183.0 82.6 62.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 10.0 13.0 20.0 154.1 78.3 63.0 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.5 17.3 11.4 105.8 67.6 49.2 6.3 10.8 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.8 21.8 24.7 120.9 71.6 61.0 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.9 21.0 14.9 155.6 78.4 55.7 6.6 10.5 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.7 18.7 25.3 121.8 71.1 61.8 5.7 10.1 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.1 22.4 16.9 148.4 77.3 55.2 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.3 17.4 12.8 122.1 71.6 52.3 4.8 9.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.5 31.9 16.4 168.8 80.6 59.6 8.1 13.7 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 27.4 32.2 21.4 138.1 75.2 62.2 9.4 16.0 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.7 20.6 20.9 160.7 79.3 59.8 5.5 9.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.8 15.4 15.2 153.7 78.1 61.0 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.3 19.7 18.4 150.7 77.7 57.3 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 8.0 11.1 21.0 172.1 81.0 61.3 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.1 28.1 25.1 119.7 71.1 60.9 8.9 15.5 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.5 26.5 15.2 151.1 77.6 56.5 9.6 14.6 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------