***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.8 16.7 8.7 91.2 64.1 43.4 6.0 10.9 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 6.1 14.8 9.8 87.3 61.8 44.6 6.2 10.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.2 14.4 9.9 98.6 65.7 48.0 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.6 14.7 9.8 106.3 67.6 49.1 4.4 8.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.0 12.4 11.2 118.0 70.6 50.5 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.4 11.8 83.4 60.5 47.2 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.1 13.2 10.2 84.5 60.4 43.5 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.3 21.1 11.1 103.5 66.1 51.2 7.2 13.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.4 14.1 12.4 119.8 71.3 50.2 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.0 19.4 13.0 110.0 68.3 51.3 5.5 10.6 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.6 9.0 113.1 69.1 48.9 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.4 12.5 8.1 105.8 66.5 48.4 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.5 9.0 93.0 63.1 46.5 2.5 4.8 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.6 20.1 12.9 91.3 62.7 48.9 6.9 13.2 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.9 12.5 8.2 94.4 63.9 45.0 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.8 10.0 8.7 100.4 65.5 48.1 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.8 9.4 84.4 59.4 43.6 3.8 8.1 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.6 18.6 15.5 105.1 66.9 52.8 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 13.2 9.3 88.3 62.7 46.0 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.9 18.8 14.1 98.4 64.1 54.0 7.5 12.9 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.9 17.3 9.6 107.7 68.1 47.2 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.2 8.7 83.5 59.7 45.2 4.4 8.9 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.6 15.1 9.5 90.3 63.4 47.3 5.0 9.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.2 18.9 14.0 104.7 67.2 51.5 5.8 11.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.2 12.5 10.5 97.5 64.7 48.8 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.8 9.1 7.6 109.1 67.8 48.2 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.0 18.2 10.4 90.3 63.0 46.0 7.1 12.6 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.9 11.0 9.1 100.3 65.9 47.0 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.9 23.2 14.9 100.7 65.2 53.0 7.2 14.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 6.4 14.9 10.0 90.6 63.3 45.3 6.4 10.6 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------