***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 14.7 7.4 101.2 66.6 41.7 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.4 11.1 7.2 97.5 64.8 45.0 3.2 6.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.6 19.3 8.1 109.3 68.6 43.6 4.0 9.4 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 22.1 8.8 119.0 71.4 50.2 4.2 9.6 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.9 23.6 9.3 121.8 72.0 49.9 5.6 11.1 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 5.0 23.6 12.7 130.9 73.9 53.8 5.0 10.0 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.3 11.0 7.1 91.1 62.8 43.7 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 22.9 30.1 10.9 109.0 68.4 52.0 9.1 17.0 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.7 21.3 9.6 117.6 71.0 46.3 4.4 9.8 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 25.2 11.2 103.7 67.3 48.5 7.3 14.3 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.1 18.5 7.9 111.1 68.9 50.3 5.0 9.9 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.2 21.4 7.8 117.5 70.4 51.0 5.9 11.4 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.7 15.7 8.4 115.6 70.3 50.2 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.1 20.1 9.7 94.1 64.0 44.5 6.7 12.7 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.5 12.7 8.5 125.7 72.7 47.0 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.0 17.1 7.7 109.9 69.3 50.3 6.2 10.3 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.4 5.8 81.2 58.6 41.2 2.8 5.0 7.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.3 21.4 13.3 100.0 66.5 49.1 7.6 13.5 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.0 16.2 7.2 99.2 65.6 44.2 4.6 9.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 20.7 14.1 106.3 67.7 53.3 7.0 12.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.3 19.4 7.8 114.6 70.1 43.2 4.3 9.3 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.9 15.1 6.1 91.6 61.9 43.6 4.9 10.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.3 14.5 7.3 98.6 65.8 42.5 4.3 8.5 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.1 19.4 10.9 103.3 67.1 46.0 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.7 17.4 9.1 106.5 67.7 44.8 4.0 9.0 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.8 13.6 7.4 132.5 73.9 51.4 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.5 16.4 8.8 97.9 65.2 42.1 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.1 16.6 8.3 115.2 70.8 48.4 3.9 8.0 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.6 27.8 13.6 99.6 66.2 49.9 12.1 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.0 15.1 7.6 100.2 66.2 44.8 3.6 7.9 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------