***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 9999.0 18.0 19.7 3.3 95.7 91.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 15.9 17.6 19.5 3.1 93.9 90.6 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 17.6 19.4 19.5 3.1 94.3 91.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 13.1 15.0 17.4 2.8 92.9 90.2 10.1 11.2 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 14.2 15.3 17.1 2.4 90.5 88.0 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 13.1 14.2 15.1 2.6 91.3 89.2 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 15.8 17.4 19.5 3.0 93.4 90.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 8.6 9.9 15.0 2.6 90.1 87.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 15.4 16.3 17.3 2.3 89.3 86.6 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 15.2 16.1 15.7 2.4 89.0 86.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 15.2 16.1 16.4 2.3 89.3 86.9 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 13.0 14.0 15.7 2.5 90.6 88.2 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 14.4 14.9 15.1 1.8 84.5 82.4 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 16.0 17.1 17.5 2.5 90.2 87.7 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 16.5 17.6 18.4 2.4 91.2 88.7 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 15.6 16.4 16.1 2.2 88.1 86.0 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 16.4 18.1 19.2 3.1 94.0 91.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 13.9 14.8 14.6 2.2 88.2 86.0 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 15.6 17.1 19.5 3.1 94.1 90.9 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 9.6 10.4 12.6 2.4 88.6 85.9 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 15.3 16.5 18.8 2.7 91.9 89.1 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 15.3 16.7 19.1 2.9 93.0 90.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 14.9 16.4 19.2 3.0 94.0 90.9 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 15.8 17.0 17.2 2.5 90.1 87.7 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 15.1 16.8 18.5 3.1 94.8 91.5 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 13.9 14.3 14.7 1.9 84.6 82.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 15.0 16.9 19.0 3.1 95.3 91.5 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 14.2 15.2 17.7 2.5 90.9 88.4 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 12.6 13.5 13.9 2.2 86.7 84.5 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 16.0 17.6 19.7 3.1 94.2 90.7 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------