***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 14.8 17.6 0.0 50.7 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.1 14.6 17.5 -0.2 47.5 47.7 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.7 17.6 0.1 52.3 51.6 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.5 15.7 -0.1 47.8 47.9 10.5 11.6 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.2 15.4 -0.1 47.7 47.8 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.5 13.8 0.1 52.9 51.8 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.7 17.5 -0.2 46.9 47.3 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.8 13.6 0.1 51.5 50.4 6.8 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.5 15.8 0.0 49.4 49.1 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.6 14.3 0.1 51.3 50.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.4 15.0 0.0 50.7 50.0 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.4 14.4 0.0 50.6 49.9 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.7 13.9 0.0 49.6 49.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.1 15.6 -0.1 47.4 47.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.8 16.8 0.2 53.0 52.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.6 14.7 0.0 49.9 49.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.2 17.1 -0.2 46.5 46.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.3 13.5 0.1 51.2 50.4 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.6 17.4 -0.1 48.4 48.5 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.2 11.7 0.0 50.5 49.9 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.4 16.9 0.0 50.7 50.3 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.2 16.9 -0.2 46.2 46.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.2 17.1 -0.1 48.4 48.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.8 15.5 0.1 51.1 50.5 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.3 16.1 0.0 49.5 49.5 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.3 13.9 -0.2 46.2 46.3 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.2 16.8 0.0 49.8 49.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.5 16.1 0.0 49.8 49.4 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.7 12.8 0.0 50.8 50.0 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 15.3 14.9 17.6 -0.1 48.8 48.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------