***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 15.7 17.3 -0.5 40.0 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.6 17.3 -0.7 36.6 38.8 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.0 17.4 -0.4 41.1 42.1 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 11.6 11.9 15.4 -0.8 33.4 35.5 11.9 12.9 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.3 15.2 -0.8 32.9 35.1 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.6 13.5 -0.6 37.7 39.3 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.0 17.3 -0.7 36.4 38.7 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.3 7.6 13.3 -0.7 34.8 37.2 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.5 15.5 -0.8 34.2 35.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.4 14.0 -0.7 35.1 37.2 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.4 14.8 -0.6 36.2 38.2 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.2 12.4 14.2 -0.7 35.3 37.5 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.6 13.8 13.7 -0.7 35.0 36.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.2 15.5 -0.7 35.2 37.7 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.8 15.9 16.4 -0.6 38.6 39.7 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.9 14.8 14.5 -0.7 35.5 37.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.1 15.3 16.8 -0.8 34.5 37.3 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.0 13.3 -0.7 35.6 37.9 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.8 17.3 -0.6 37.8 39.8 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.5 8.9 11.5 -0.7 34.4 37.0 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.5 16.5 -0.7 36.5 37.9 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.4 16.8 -0.7 34.9 37.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 14.2 14.5 17.1 -0.6 38.4 40.1 14.3 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.0 15.4 -0.5 38.2 39.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.7 15.8 -0.6 37.6 39.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 13.3 13.4 13.5 -0.9 31.8 33.7 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.6 16.5 -0.5 39.9 41.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 13.3 13.6 15.9 -0.7 35.0 36.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 11.2 11.7 12.6 -0.7 35.3 38.0 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.3 17.5 -0.6 38.5 40.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------