***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 15.5 17.9 0.0 50.9 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.8 15.0 18.0 0.0 49.4 49.2 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.2 18.1 0.3 55.8 53.6 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 10.9 11.9 16.2 -0.2 44.1 45.5 11.3 12.2 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 12.6 13.6 15.9 -0.2 46.2 46.8 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 11.7 12.7 14.3 0.1 51.3 50.8 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.2 17.9 -0.1 46.9 47.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.7 14.0 -0.1 47.4 47.7 7.1 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 14.0 15.0 16.3 0.0 49.8 49.3 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.9 14.7 0.0 49.8 49.4 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.6 15.5 0.0 49.0 48.5 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 11.5 12.5 15.0 -0.1 47.5 47.6 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.9 14.4 0.0 48.9 48.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.8 16.3 0.2 53.7 52.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.3 17.3 0.0 48.9 49.3 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 14.0 15.1 15.2 -0.1 47.6 47.8 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.5 17.5 -0.2 46.3 47.3 14.8 15.7 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.1 13.3 14.0 0.1 52.3 51.2 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.2 18.1 0.1 52.3 51.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 9.1 12.2 0.0 49.2 49.2 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.8 17.3 0.1 51.3 50.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.9 17.6 0.0 49.2 49.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.8 17.9 0.2 54.9 52.7 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.6 16.2 0.2 55.5 53.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.8 16.4 -0.1 47.4 48.2 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 12.7 13.3 14.2 -0.4 40.6 42.8 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.6 17.1 0.0 49.0 49.5 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 12.9 13.8 16.7 -0.2 45.8 46.9 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.1 13.4 0.1 52.9 51.9 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 18.2 0.0 51.0 50.3 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------