***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 29.2 30.3 3.7 89.1 85.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 28.6 30.0 30.1 3.5 86.3 83.2 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 28.7 30.7 30.6 3.9 89.3 85.9 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 21.8 23.3 28.0 3.4 87.8 84.6 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 29.0 30.7 28.6 3.4 87.2 84.1 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 27.7 29.3 26.1 3.4 89.3 86.1 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 28.5 30.0 29.9 3.4 86.3 83.3 24.7 26.2 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 17.1 18.3 26.5 3.3 86.0 83.1 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 28.7 30.4 29.4 3.5 87.5 84.2 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 28.4 29.9 27.7 3.6 87.5 84.4 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 28.8 30.4 28.3 3.4 87.4 84.4 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 27.7 29.1 27.5 3.3 86.5 83.6 24.3 25.7 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 28.9 30.4 27.6 3.4 87.8 84.7 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 28.6 30.4 29.1 3.7 88.3 84.4 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 29.7 31.4 29.6 3.2 88.1 85.1 26.0 27.5 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 29.7 31.3 28.1 3.5 88.2 85.2 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 28.2 29.5 29.6 3.3 85.6 82.6 24.4 25.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 28.0 29.6 26.9 3.7 88.0 84.6 24.0 25.5 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 28.2 29.8 30.3 3.6 87.3 83.9 24.3 25.9 27.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 23.5 24.9 24.7 3.6 87.1 84.1 19.6 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 28.8 30.5 30.3 3.6 87.9 84.5 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 28.6 30.1 29.7 3.4 86.4 83.1 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 28.6 30.4 30.3 3.8 88.8 85.1 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 28.1 30.0 29.0 3.8 88.9 85.4 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 29.0 30.8 29.0 3.6 88.6 85.5 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 28.2 29.2 26.6 3.0 84.3 81.4 24.9 26.2 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 28.4 30.2 29.6 3.7 89.5 86.2 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 29.8 31.4 28.7 3.3 87.8 84.7 25.9 27.4 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 23.3 25.0 26.1 3.7 88.1 84.7 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 28.6 30.2 30.4 3.6 87.6 84.4 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------