***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 27.0 27.3 -0.3 46.6 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.0 27.1 -0.5 44.6 45.8 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.3 27.5 -0.2 48.1 48.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.7 19.7 25.7 -0.5 43.7 44.6 18.9 20.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.2 25.5 -0.6 42.6 43.8 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.3 23.5 -0.2 46.8 46.9 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 27.6 26.7 27.0 -0.5 43.9 45.2 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.3 23.8 -0.6 42.4 43.8 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 27.9 26.8 25.8 -0.5 43.4 44.5 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 27.7 26.5 24.5 -0.6 43.2 44.4 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.9 26.8 25.0 -0.5 43.7 44.7 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.9 24.8 -0.6 42.9 44.1 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.2 24.3 -0.5 43.9 44.6 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.7 25.4 -0.5 43.7 45.2 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.3 26.6 -0.1 48.2 48.4 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 28.8 27.7 24.8 -0.5 43.7 44.6 26.8 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.2 26.1 26.6 -0.7 41.5 43.4 25.5 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 26.9 25.9 23.7 -0.5 43.5 44.8 25.0 26.4 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 27.4 26.6 27.3 -0.4 45.9 46.8 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 22.8 21.6 21.5 -0.6 42.4 43.8 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.1 26.8 -0.4 45.2 46.0 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 27.8 26.8 26.6 -0.6 42.8 44.7 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 27.7 26.9 27.1 -0.3 46.6 47.4 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.5 25.5 -0.4 45.6 46.5 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.3 25.8 -0.3 46.1 46.6 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 25.7 26.6 24.2 -0.7 41.7 42.9 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.9 26.4 -0.3 46.7 47.2 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.2 26.1 -0.4 44.8 45.6 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.2 22.7 -0.5 43.5 44.8 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 27.7 26.9 27.4 -0.3 46.0 46.8 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------