***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 27.5 27.1 -1.2 31.9 36.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 26.9 27.3 27.1 -1.2 32.0 36.3 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.4 27.3 -1.0 34.6 38.3 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 19.7 19.8 25.5 -1.6 28.3 32.3 20.2 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.4 25.2 -1.6 28.4 32.5 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 25.8 26.2 23.2 -1.3 32.8 35.8 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 26.6 27.0 26.9 -1.3 30.7 35.4 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 15.2 15.5 23.5 -1.4 31.3 34.2 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 26.8 27.0 25.5 -1.4 30.0 33.9 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 26.6 26.9 24.2 -1.4 30.8 34.2 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 26.9 27.2 24.8 -1.4 30.8 34.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.1 26.4 24.6 -1.4 32.1 35.0 26.5 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 27.1 27.6 24.1 -1.4 32.1 35.3 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 26.6 27.0 25.3 -1.1 33.4 36.8 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 28.0 28.2 26.5 -1.2 32.5 35.6 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 27.8 28.0 24.6 -1.4 31.0 34.4 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 26.0 26.3 26.6 -1.4 29.7 34.5 26.6 27.6 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 25.8 26.2 23.4 -1.3 31.9 35.1 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 26.5 27.0 27.2 -1.1 33.8 37.6 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 21.2 21.7 21.3 -1.4 31.4 34.2 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.2 26.5 -1.3 30.9 35.0 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 26.6 27.1 26.7 -1.1 32.9 36.8 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.2 27.0 -1.0 35.4 38.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 26.3 26.8 25.3 -1.1 34.0 37.2 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 26.8 27.2 25.6 -1.4 30.4 34.5 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 26.8 27.0 24.1 -1.6 30.3 33.6 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 26.5 26.9 26.2 -1.2 31.5 35.6 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 27.8 27.9 25.9 -1.5 30.0 33.6 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 20.9 21.3 22.4 -1.4 31.9 34.9 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 26.7 27.1 27.3 -1.2 32.7 37.0 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------