***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 27.6 28.3 0.6 59.9 58.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 27.7 27.9 28.3 0.5 57.5 56.3 26.8 27.5 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 27.8 28.1 28.6 0.7 62.7 60.7 26.7 27.5 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 20.8 20.8 26.6 0.2 54.1 53.5 19.7 20.6 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 28.3 28.2 26.5 0.2 54.0 53.5 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 26.9 27.0 24.3 0.4 58.6 57.6 25.9 26.6 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 27.6 27.7 28.1 0.4 56.1 55.2 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.2 24.7 0.2 54.5 54.1 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 27.8 27.8 27.0 0.3 55.9 55.1 26.7 27.5 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 27.6 27.6 25.5 0.3 56.3 55.5 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.9 27.9 26.1 0.3 56.0 55.2 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 27.0 27.0 25.8 0.3 55.0 54.5 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 28.2 28.2 25.4 0.3 55.8 55.1 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 27.5 27.7 26.7 0.6 60.3 58.7 26.6 27.3 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 28.8 29.0 27.7 0.5 58.5 57.5 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.8 25.9 0.3 55.7 55.1 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 27.1 27.2 27.7 0.2 54.2 53.5 26.2 27.0 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 26.8 26.9 24.7 0.4 58.2 57.1 25.7 26.6 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 27.3 27.5 28.4 0.6 59.7 58.3 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.5 22.5 22.6 0.3 56.3 55.6 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.0 27.9 0.5 58.1 56.9 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 27.6 27.8 27.8 0.4 57.4 56.3 26.6 27.4 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 27.5 27.9 28.3 0.7 62.0 60.3 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.5 26.7 0.6 61.5 59.7 26.2 26.9 27.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 27.9 28.1 26.9 0.4 58.0 56.8 26.9 27.7 28.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 27.7 27.5 25.1 0.1 51.4 51.5 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 27.4 27.7 27.5 0.5 59.6 58.2 26.5 27.2 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 28.9 28.9 27.0 0.3 55.2 54.6 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 22.1 22.3 23.7 0.4 58.6 57.5 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 27.5 27.8 28.5 0.6 59.2 57.8 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------