***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 12.3 14.5 95.8 63.3 41.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 6.0 20.4 14.9 100.9 64.5 41.5 7.0 13.0 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 5.5 16.9 12.9 84.1 58.4 39.4 6.1 12.5 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.1 14.7 14.4 85.1 59.4 39.2 4.4 9.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 4.7 16.7 14.3 84.1 59.9 38.1 5.0 11.3 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.5 13.9 12.9 73.0 55.7 40.6 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 6.6 23.2 15.8 110.2 67.3 42.7 7.3 13.5 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.5 17.3 11.3 66.7 51.7 36.9 7.8 16.3 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 6.0 16.7 14.5 87.8 61.1 42.4 6.0 11.7 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 6.3 16.2 13.2 72.9 54.3 37.9 6.4 13.8 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 4.4 15.5 12.7 82.7 59.7 39.4 5.0 10.7 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.7 9.7 10.4 72.2 55.5 38.5 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 4.0 12.0 11.5 72.6 55.8 38.8 4.6 9.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.9 22.1 13.9 82.3 57.4 42.8 9.4 17.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.0 11.8 78.2 57.9 45.0 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.9 11.8 12.5 79.2 58.3 40.7 4.3 8.8 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 5.4 19.6 16.5 116.1 68.8 42.8 6.1 11.3 18.1 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.4 11.7 12.8 67.9 50.8 37.1 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 5.5 18.9 14.0 93.6 61.8 40.6 6.3 12.7 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 6.5 10.9 10.4 57.6 44.5 33.4 7.5 12.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.7 17.2 13.8 90.1 61.7 41.8 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 5.6 18.8 15.0 106.9 66.1 41.8 6.0 11.4 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 6.4 16.8 13.3 86.5 59.3 40.8 7.4 12.8 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.0 21.8 12.9 75.5 54.7 40.3 9.7 18.7 31.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 5.7 17.0 16.8 94.8 62.2 42.6 5.7 11.1 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 4.7 11.0 8.6 64.0 52.8 39.0 5.2 9.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 8.0 21.2 16.1 94.6 62.2 41.6 8.7 15.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.8 10.3 12.4 77.2 56.9 40.9 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.9 14.3 12.1 66.2 49.5 37.1 7.0 14.6 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 5.0 16.1 14.2 94.9 62.6 40.7 5.5 10.7 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------