***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 22.8 12.9 129.9 73.2 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.6 23.2 13.4 135.5 74.5 52.0 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.5 19.9 12.5 118.5 70.3 50.2 7.5 12.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.3 21.0 15.2 146.3 76.7 55.1 5.1 9.2 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.0 24.0 16.1 145.1 76.5 54.2 5.3 10.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.3 13.7 23.1 155.4 78.6 60.2 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.0 18.1 14.0 134.1 74.1 52.2 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.7 26.8 15.8 125.9 71.9 54.3 6.5 12.9 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.1 16.2 16.0 132.2 73.6 53.1 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 21.4 16.9 123.9 71.5 54.3 5.8 10.8 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.2 18.3 14.6 145.8 76.6 53.2 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.3 19.5 13.8 148.5 76.8 54.6 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 9.8 12.5 18.1 160.9 79.6 58.9 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 20.2 25.2 15.6 106.7 67.4 52.7 9.6 16.0 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.5 12.6 11.9 129.6 73.1 53.2 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.2 13.7 16.8 159.5 79.3 56.6 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.1 19.6 13.8 139.0 75.2 51.6 4.8 9.0 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 21.2 18.8 113.4 68.7 55.2 7.2 12.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.2 21.0 12.6 127.9 72.7 50.9 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.4 18.6 19.1 112.5 68.0 55.9 6.7 11.5 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.1 20.3 13.8 129.8 73.1 51.7 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.3 17.7 13.4 132.2 73.7 51.1 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.4 21.6 12.3 113.8 69.2 49.7 8.1 13.2 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 11.7 28.5 15.8 110.5 68.1 53.2 11.2 18.1 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.0 19.1 15.7 131.9 73.7 54.0 6.2 10.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 17.1 14.3 172.3 81.4 58.5 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.2 18.9 15.1 127.2 72.6 51.9 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.1 10.6 14.6 150.6 77.6 55.5 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.2 28.3 18.8 111.7 68.1 55.7 10.8 17.9 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.7 24.3 13.2 129.8 73.2 51.3 8.8 14.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------