***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 11.3 5.3 74.6 57.7 36.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.9 10.1 5.1 76.2 58.1 41.5 3.9 7.8 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.0 12.0 5.0 71.8 56.5 39.5 4.1 9.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.0 16.9 5.6 88.6 62.1 39.4 4.8 10.5 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 4.5 15.9 6.1 88.3 62.0 38.9 5.2 10.5 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.7 16.5 9.2 99.7 65.9 45.0 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.5 5.1 77.2 58.3 41.5 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.9 27.8 7.2 93.2 63.3 44.4 11.2 19.3 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 3.1 11.9 6.0 79.2 58.7 38.7 3.7 8.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.8 19.0 7.2 83.4 60.1 41.6 6.2 13.0 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.4 13.5 5.7 93.0 63.4 38.9 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.2 18.8 5.5 95.7 64.4 42.4 6.6 12.1 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.7 12.3 6.9 101.1 65.9 43.7 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.5 14.2 6.0 68.7 54.3 41.3 6.3 12.2 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.2 3.6 76.3 56.5 35.5 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 4.7 14.7 6.3 98.3 65.5 42.0 5.5 9.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.8 8.8 5.2 78.9 59.2 43.4 3.9 6.8 10.6 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.7 15.0 8.2 74.6 57.3 43.1 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.8 11.8 4.9 73.8 57.5 41.3 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.4 15.9 9.3 84.5 60.4 46.1 6.8 11.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 4.0 12.8 5.1 74.6 57.3 37.5 5.0 10.1 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.2 14.6 4.7 74.0 57.0 42.9 5.8 11.5 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.2 10.4 4.8 69.7 55.7 40.4 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.4 12.6 6.5 70.4 55.3 41.6 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.9 12.3 6.2 78.0 58.7 39.1 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.3 9.3 5.0 90.6 62.4 41.3 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 4.7 13.3 5.9 74.2 57.6 38.7 4.8 10.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.0 9.8 5.0 86.0 60.7 38.2 2.9 6.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.5 19.3 8.2 74.1 56.8 43.3 9.0 15.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.0 12.1 5.1 74.5 58.0 40.6 4.2 8.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------