***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 15.9 17.1 19.8 3.4 92.9 92.6 13.8 14.6 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 16.0 17.2 19.7 3.3 91.4 91.0 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 17.6 19.1 19.9 3.4 92.8 92.5 15.0 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 13.2 14.7 17.2 3.2 91.4 91.0 10.1 11.2 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 14.3 15.6 17.9 3.3 92.8 92.4 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 13.2 14.1 14.6 2.7 90.8 90.3 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.0 17.0 19.6 3.2 90.6 90.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 8.6 9.9 14.7 2.8 90.5 90.0 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.4 17.1 18.4 3.6 95.8 95.4 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 15.3 16.5 16.1 3.2 92.4 92.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 15.3 16.7 17.5 3.3 94.4 94.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 13.1 14.2 16.0 3.1 92.2 91.7 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 14.5 15.9 16.2 3.1 94.8 94.0 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 16.1 17.5 17.6 3.1 93.3 92.9 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.5 18.2 19.1 3.3 95.5 95.1 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 15.6 17.2 16.9 3.2 94.3 93.7 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 16.5 17.8 19.6 3.4 91.9 91.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 13.9 15.0 15.3 2.9 90.6 90.3 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 15.7 16.8 19.7 3.4 92.1 91.7 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 9.7 10.4 13.1 2.7 88.7 88.3 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 15.3 16.8 19.2 3.4 94.3 94.0 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 15.4 16.7 19.7 3.4 92.8 92.3 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 15.0 16.3 19.7 3.5 93.6 93.3 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 15.9 17.4 17.6 3.1 92.8 92.5 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 15.1 16.3 18.7 3.2 91.6 91.3 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 14.0 14.6 14.5 2.4 88.4 87.7 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.1 16.4 19.2 3.3 92.1 91.8 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 14.3 15.5 17.7 3.1 92.9 92.4 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 12.7 14.1 14.5 2.9 90.9 90.5 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 16.0 17.2 19.9 3.3 91.6 91.2 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------