***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.4 18.9 1.9 82.2 77.2 14.2 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.6 18.7 1.7 78.3 73.9 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 17.9 18.7 19.2 2.0 83.4 78.6 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 13.2 14.2 16.7 2.0 84.8 79.7 10.5 11.6 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 14.4 15.2 17.0 2.1 86.3 81.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 13.7 14.8 14.8 2.3 90.9 86.6 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.3 18.7 1.7 77.3 72.7 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 9.2 10.2 14.4 2.0 87.4 83.3 6.8 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 15.8 16.6 17.3 2.2 88.1 83.4 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 15.7 16.5 15.4 2.0 86.7 82.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 15.6 16.6 16.7 2.3 89.7 85.3 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 13.7 14.7 15.6 2.3 89.7 85.3 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 15.0 16.1 15.5 2.2 90.4 86.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 16.4 17.1 16.8 1.9 82.8 78.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 16.9 17.9 18.6 2.4 90.4 85.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 16.0 17.2 16.2 2.3 90.5 85.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.9 18.5 1.7 78.6 73.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 14.5 15.1 14.6 1.8 83.8 79.8 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.3 18.8 1.8 79.6 75.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 10.3 11.0 12.5 1.8 85.3 81.2 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 15.5 16.2 18.3 2.0 85.1 80.6 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.5 15.9 18.6 1.7 78.6 73.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 15.4 16.1 18.8 2.0 82.0 77.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 16.1 16.9 16.7 1.8 83.1 78.7 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 15.4 15.9 17.7 1.8 81.7 76.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 14.7 15.7 14.8 2.1 89.3 84.3 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 15.4 16.1 18.2 1.9 81.5 76.5 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 14.7 15.6 17.4 2.3 88.5 83.3 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 13.1 14.0 13.9 1.9 85.2 81.0 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.1 16.7 18.9 1.8 79.5 74.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------