***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.3 18.7 1.5 88.7 81.6 14.8 15.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.5 18.5 1.4 85.1 79.3 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 17.7 18.6 19.1 1.7 90.2 83.3 16.1 16.7 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 12.9 13.9 16.5 1.7 91.5 83.7 11.4 12.0 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 14.4 15.4 16.7 1.7 92.0 84.9 13.0 13.5 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 13.3 14.3 14.5 1.7 94.3 88.0 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 15.8 16.3 18.5 1.3 83.2 77.7 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 8.5 9.3 14.1 1.5 89.8 83.4 7.1 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 15.6 16.6 16.9 1.8 93.9 87.1 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 15.4 16.2 15.1 1.6 90.9 84.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 15.4 16.5 16.3 1.8 94.1 87.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 13.3 14.3 15.2 1.8 93.4 86.8 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 14.7 15.8 14.9 1.7 94.4 88.0 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 16.1 16.8 16.4 1.4 87.1 81.7 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 16.8 18.0 18.2 1.9 94.8 87.4 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 15.8 17.0 15.8 1.8 95.0 88.3 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 16.3 16.9 18.5 1.5 86.2 80.3 14.9 15.5 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 14.0 14.7 14.2 1.4 88.3 82.7 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 15.7 16.3 18.6 1.5 86.5 80.5 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 9.8 10.3 11.9 1.2 85.7 80.5 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 15.4 16.3 18.0 1.6 91.2 84.3 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 15.4 16.0 18.4 1.5 86.6 80.7 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 15.1 15.8 18.6 1.6 88.9 82.9 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 15.9 16.8 16.4 1.5 89.2 83.3 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 15.3 16.0 17.3 1.4 87.2 80.2 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 14.2 15.1 14.2 1.5 92.4 86.7 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 15.3 16.2 18.0 1.5 87.9 81.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 14.5 15.6 17.0 1.8 93.8 86.1 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 12.6 13.3 13.5 1.4 88.4 82.9 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.6 18.8 1.5 85.8 79.8 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------