***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.8 29.3 28.5 0.4 56.3 53.0 27.9 29.0 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.4 28.1 0.0 50.2 49.4 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 27.0 29.2 29.0 0.7 59.8 55.2 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 20.0 22.9 27.2 1.0 64.9 58.4 20.2 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 27.6 30.3 27.4 0.9 63.5 58.0 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 28.2 29.2 25.3 1.3 69.4 61.8 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.1 27.9 -0.2 47.3 47.6 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 15.4 17.6 25.4 0.7 59.8 56.0 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.0 29.7 27.7 1.0 64.5 58.6 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 26.8 29.3 26.2 0.8 61.4 57.0 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 27.1 30.1 27.3 1.1 66.4 60.0 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.3 29.2 27.2 1.2 66.8 60.4 26.5 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 27.4 30.6 26.5 1.3 68.7 61.7 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 26.7 27.8 25.9 -0.3 45.6 46.3 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.0 31.3 28.6 1.4 71.6 62.6 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 31.2 31.4 27.3 1.5 71.2 63.0 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.4 27.7 28.0 0.0 50.1 49.4 26.6 27.6 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.0 27.9 25.0 0.3 54.4 52.6 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.7 28.2 28.3 0.2 52.3 50.6 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 21.5 23.1 22.2 -0.1 48.7 49.2 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.1 29.5 28.3 0.7 60.1 55.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 26.8 28.3 27.8 0.0 50.3 49.4 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 26.8 28.4 28.3 0.2 53.6 51.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.5 28.1 26.5 0.2 53.1 51.4 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 27.2 29.0 26.9 0.4 55.5 52.8 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.4 27.1 1.6 72.9 64.9 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.4 27.5 0.3 54.2 51.8 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 31.2 31.3 27.9 1.4 70.6 62.0 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.2 22.8 23.7 0.0 50.1 49.9 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.3 28.3 0.1 51.9 50.4 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------