***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 26.5 28.9 29.6 0.8 61.1 56.6 26.9 28.1 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 26.6 28.8 29.6 0.8 61.6 57.1 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 29.3 29.0 30.1 1.2 66.3 59.8 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 19.3 22.0 28.0 1.1 65.1 57.7 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 26.7 29.3 28.2 1.1 64.7 58.1 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 28.4 28.0 25.6 1.0 64.9 58.8 25.9 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 26.6 28.5 29.3 0.6 57.9 54.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.7 16.9 26.1 1.0 63.0 57.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.3 29.2 28.5 1.3 67.2 59.7 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 28.9 28.7 27.0 1.1 65.4 59.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 29.2 29.0 28.0 1.3 67.2 60.0 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 28.4 28.2 27.8 1.3 67.0 60.3 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 29.6 29.2 26.9 1.2 65.6 59.6 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 26.5 28.1 27.1 0.6 57.9 54.9 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 27.5 30.4 29.3 1.4 70.7 60.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 30.3 30.2 27.8 1.4 69.0 61.0 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 29.0 28.6 29.6 1.0 63.5 58.3 26.4 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.4 27.5 25.9 0.8 61.2 56.9 25.6 26.8 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 28.9 28.5 29.8 1.0 63.9 58.5 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 21.0 22.7 23.0 0.3 54.4 53.1 21.3 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 26.5 28.9 29.1 0.9 62.8 57.3 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 29.4 29.1 29.5 1.1 65.2 59.1 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 29.0 28.7 29.7 1.1 65.4 59.4 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 25.9 28.0 27.5 0.9 61.9 57.3 26.2 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 26.8 28.7 27.8 0.6 58.4 54.4 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 29.1 29.1 27.5 1.4 69.3 62.2 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 26.3 28.2 28.5 0.6 59.0 54.9 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 27.5 30.3 28.5 1.3 68.9 59.9 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 20.6 22.6 24.6 0.6 57.8 54.9 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 26.3 28.6 29.6 0.8 61.4 57.0 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------