***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 28.7 28.8 29.0 1.3 74.8 69.0 27.3 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 28.5 28.3 28.7 0.9 67.0 63.9 26.8 27.5 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 28.6 28.8 29.3 1.5 76.2 70.0 26.7 27.5 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 21.6 22.3 27.1 1.7 82.2 72.9 19.7 20.6 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.7 27.7 1.6 80.8 72.4 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 27.7 28.6 25.3 1.8 86.1 76.6 25.9 26.6 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 28.3 28.1 28.6 0.8 64.8 62.4 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 16.9 17.2 25.3 1.3 75.9 69.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 28.6 29.4 28.2 1.8 82.8 74.0 26.7 27.5 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 28.4 28.8 26.3 1.5 78.5 71.1 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 28.7 29.5 27.7 1.8 83.1 74.5 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 27.8 28.5 27.0 1.8 83.0 74.3 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 28.9 30.1 27.0 2.0 86.8 77.1 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 28.1 27.9 26.8 0.8 65.8 62.7 26.6 27.3 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 29.7 30.7 29.2 2.1 88.0 78.0 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 29.6 30.9 27.5 2.1 87.5 77.4 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 28.0 27.9 28.7 1.1 69.8 66.0 26.2 27.0 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 27.6 27.6 25.1 1.1 71.1 66.3 25.7 26.6 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 28.0 28.0 28.9 1.1 69.6 65.5 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 23.3 23.0 22.5 0.7 65.1 62.2 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 28.7 29.1 28.8 1.4 77.2 70.5 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 28.4 28.4 28.5 1.1 70.8 66.4 26.6 27.4 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 28.3 28.4 28.9 1.3 73.0 68.0 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 27.9 27.9 27.0 1.1 71.0 66.4 26.2 26.9 27.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 28.7 28.9 27.5 1.2 74.7 68.7 26.9 27.7 28.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 28.5 29.4 26.7 2.0 86.3 77.5 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 28.2 28.3 28.1 1.2 73.8 68.2 26.5 27.2 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 29.7 30.7 28.0 2.0 86.4 76.3 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 22.9 22.8 24.0 0.9 68.2 64.5 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 28.3 28.2 28.8 1.0 68.4 64.8 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------