***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 13.7 19.7 19.2 99.7 65.9 63.1 5.9 11.5 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 25.0 26.6 20.6 129.1 73.2 69.4 7.0 13.0 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 24.3 25.3 21.5 115.4 70.3 66.5 6.1 12.5 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.9 15.0 85.9 59.9 54.6 4.4 9.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 14.1 20.3 18.6 98.8 65.1 60.6 5.0 11.3 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 14.4 14.8 16.1 80.7 57.4 51.8 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 27.7 29.4 21.4 137.7 75.0 71.5 7.3 13.5 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 20.4 29.6 25.3 110.8 67.1 63.5 7.8 16.3 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 20.7 20.3 21.0 107.3 67.5 63.6 6.0 11.7 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 17.1 24.6 25.3 105.7 66.1 62.6 6.4 13.8 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 13.8 17.8 18.1 94.3 63.6 58.0 5.0 10.7 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 15.3 14.7 20.3 111.4 67.7 62.7 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 12.7 14.0 15.8 83.9 60.2 53.4 4.6 9.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 20.5 30.5 25.1 108.4 67.7 63.9 9.4 17.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 8.4 7.5 9.6 62.8 53.6 48.7 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.4 14.0 16.6 93.4 63.1 55.9 4.3 8.8 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 23.4 27.7 23.6 164.1 79.9 75.4 6.1 11.3 18.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 13.8 20.7 27.7 109.6 67.1 64.1 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 25.7 26.8 20.9 124.3 72.3 68.1 6.3 12.7 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 20.7 20.3 28.2 110.9 67.2 64.0 7.5 12.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 13.9 19.7 19.5 100.7 66.1 62.6 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 24.0 28.3 23.2 161.1 79.4 74.0 6.0 11.4 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 21.4 22.9 21.1 117.9 70.7 66.8 7.4 12.8 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 22.0 32.6 23.8 107.2 67.4 63.5 9.7 18.7 31.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 13.1 16.3 17.0 85.4 61.1 56.9 5.7 11.1 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 18.6 19.4 19.1 118.2 70.4 65.0 5.2 9.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 17.3 22.4 18.5 95.3 64.2 60.8 8.7 15.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.2 11.3 14.6 83.0 59.8 54.0 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 17.6 24.2 25.3 100.9 64.1 61.3 7.0 14.6 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 21.0 21.6 20.3 122.4 71.9 68.6 5.5 10.7 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------