***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 13.5 16.5 104.8 66.1 47.7 5.2 8.7 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.2 20.2 16.8 113.6 68.5 48.7 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.7 17.1 16.9 100.6 63.8 47.1 7.5 12.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.4 14.4 17.1 101.0 64.2 48.2 5.1 9.2 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.4 14.8 15.4 95.6 61.5 45.0 5.3 10.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.5 8.3 17.2 100.8 62.9 48.4 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.9 15.4 16.2 111.5 67.9 46.4 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.0 20.6 16.8 101.2 64.0 49.4 6.5 12.9 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.8 18.0 103.4 64.1 47.7 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.2 16.5 17.9 99.4 63.3 48.8 5.8 10.8 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.1 15.4 97.8 61.6 46.3 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.9 11.5 13.5 94.0 60.9 45.7 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.3 14.5 92.8 60.5 46.5 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.6 22.5 19.8 98.7 62.9 45.9 9.6 16.0 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.6 10.0 16.0 107.5 66.8 46.2 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.5 14.0 90.6 59.4 44.5 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.4 14.7 15.0 104.7 65.9 46.6 4.8 9.0 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.4 17.3 19.5 95.7 61.4 47.9 7.2 12.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.7 19.1 17.3 115.6 69.1 50.1 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 15.1 18.5 95.1 60.2 49.4 6.7 11.5 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.3 15.3 17.0 97.2 63.0 47.9 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.6 14.4 15.1 106.4 66.4 47.9 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 16.7 20.9 18.1 113.0 68.1 50.7 8.1 13.2 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.4 24.5 18.7 97.1 61.9 47.7 11.2 18.1 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.1 14.9 18.1 100.4 63.9 47.4 6.2 10.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.5 11.0 83.7 54.4 38.3 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.2 15.4 18.1 103.7 65.1 47.3 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.2 7.1 15.5 99.9 64.3 47.0 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.6 24.6 21.2 100.8 62.9 50.7 10.8 17.9 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.8 20.4 16.1 105.8 65.9 46.1 8.8 14.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------