***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.8 13.9 9.9 83.0 59.4 43.0 5.6 10.4 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.7 8.8 84.2 58.8 44.1 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.2 11.2 9.6 80.0 57.7 43.3 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.2 9.9 89.4 61.9 45.5 4.0 7.7 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.3 7.5 8.1 69.9 53.7 39.9 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.2 12.2 91.8 61.8 46.4 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.7 12.5 8.3 78.5 56.7 42.6 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 15.2 9.9 68.0 52.6 42.4 8.3 14.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.9 9.2 68.8 53.6 41.8 3.1 6.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.6 12.3 10.4 65.7 51.9 41.3 6.1 11.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 7.5 7.5 69.6 54.1 41.0 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.8 7.3 64.0 51.3 40.1 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.8 9.2 74.7 56.9 41.9 2.9 5.5 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.5 13.4 81.3 57.3 45.4 5.7 11.4 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 10.2 8.7 93.7 64.1 43.6 2.3 5.5 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.6 8.2 73.2 56.1 40.8 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.9 9.0 82.0 58.6 45.1 3.9 8.1 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 13.8 13.8 75.9 55.9 45.6 6.4 11.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.8 11.6 9.2 85.1 59.4 44.7 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.3 14.7 84.3 58.0 47.8 7.4 12.4 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.2 10.0 79.9 58.2 44.2 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.7 10.7 90.5 61.9 46.3 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.4 14.4 9.4 81.7 58.4 45.1 6.0 11.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.0 12.2 78.8 56.6 45.2 5.6 10.5 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.5 11.1 85.2 60.3 44.6 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.5 5.8 6.3 66.7 54.0 36.8 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.0 14.1 10.8 83.3 59.4 43.2 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.6 11.1 9.3 89.6 62.2 44.2 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.8 17.6 15.0 79.9 56.6 46.7 7.3 14.1 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 5.5 11.9 8.8 82.5 58.3 42.3 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------