***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.9 13.5 11.4 98.2 64.4 40.8 3.2 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.5 11.3 9.9 90.2 61.4 38.8 3.9 7.8 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.7 17.2 12.2 103.4 66.2 40.9 4.1 9.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.6 18.4 10.1 97.3 64.4 39.5 4.8 10.5 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 5.0 17.1 10.0 95.2 64.1 40.3 5.2 10.5 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.1 16.2 12.0 102.2 65.5 43.4 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.7 8.5 9.1 81.8 58.2 38.1 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 10.6 25.9 11.7 88.4 60.7 43.0 11.2 19.3 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.7 15.4 11.6 100.7 65.5 41.0 3.7 8.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 6.0 20.6 13.0 92.5 62.2 42.2 6.2 13.0 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.9 13.5 9.0 93.9 63.4 40.3 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.2 17.8 9.1 91.0 62.4 42.1 6.6 12.1 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.0 11.1 9.7 90.2 62.4 40.6 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.9 16.1 13.7 81.7 58.2 40.5 6.3 12.2 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.4 10.2 8.0 101.0 66.1 38.2 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 5.0 13.9 9.3 93.4 63.5 39.5 5.5 9.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.5 7.6 7.8 69.7 54.2 36.5 3.9 6.8 10.6 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.2 16.2 14.9 86.6 59.8 42.7 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 4.2 13.7 10.4 92.3 62.3 39.0 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.0 14.0 14.1 79.5 55.7 43.5 6.8 11.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.8 17.6 11.8 103.0 66.3 41.3 5.0 10.1 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 5.3 13.6 8.3 71.3 54.9 35.5 5.8 11.5 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 3.8 12.4 10.7 88.7 61.5 39.0 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.1 15.0 13.3 88.6 60.7 41.2 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.8 14.8 11.5 95.9 64.0 41.1 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.8 9.3 7.2 89.3 62.0 38.1 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.5 16.0 11.5 94.1 63.0 40.9 4.8 10.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.0 11.8 9.7 101.4 65.9 40.3 2.9 6.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.1 19.1 14.6 79.7 56.4 42.1 9.0 15.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.7 14.9 10.8 96.2 63.7 39.3 4.2 8.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------