***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 62.0 61.7 56.9 97.4 57.8 50.4 38.9 54.1 70.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 63.5 68.1 56.1 107.4 63.3 55.0 46.8 58.3 70.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 67.6 70.9 60.1 101.6 60.2 52.3 43.0 59.2 78.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 37.5 60.8 52.1 93.4 55.4 47.3 37.3 54.6 75.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 66.1 61.5 52.2 91.4 54.3 47.7 40.9 57.1 75.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 55.2 50.8 57.6 92.4 54.3 46.5 32.8 46.7 63.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 61.1 66.0 55.0 106.2 62.5 54.7 41.8 54.9 69.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 95.7 94.1 63.7 94.4 55.3 50.5 65.0 86.5 110.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 59.4 58.6 59.7 96.7 57.3 50.3 36.2 51.3 68.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 82.1 77.9 66.6 92.5 54.4 49.1 52.4 72.3 95.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 57.0 53.0 50.1 90.4 53.7 48.2 35.8 49.6 65.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 54.1 51.7 50.3 92.5 55.2 49.6 31.8 46.4 64.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 44.4 39.1 49.1 85.6 51.6 45.3 26.9 38.0 51.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 88.5 85.6 72.0 94.4 55.4 49.3 60.2 79.2 100.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 22.1 39.2 42.4 89.3 54.8 45.2 22.3 35.0 50.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 48.4 43.9 48.1 88.5 52.9 46.6 30.3 41.7 54.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 54.0 60.5 55.4 109.0 64.0 57.6 38.7 49.9 62.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 74.0 71.3 75.8 93.6 54.7 49.4 50.3 66.5 84.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 65.5 71.3 57.9 107.3 63.3 55.0 45.0 59.1 74.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 68.1 65.5 75.5 94.2 54.2 50.0 47.0 61.5 77.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 66.2 64.7 58.3 95.8 56.9 49.8 40.3 56.8 76.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 63.5 72.2 57.4 109.9 64.5 57.5 41.5 56.8 74.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 68.6 71.6 59.4 103.2 61.1 53.7 50.9 63.0 75.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 86.9 84.7 67.9 94.5 55.6 49.8 57.4 77.3 100.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 60.6 56.3 57.7 91.7 53.8 46.1 38.6 52.7 68.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 41.7 41.2 43.6 92.6 56.1 49.5 26.0 36.8 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 70.4 68.3 58.9 94.8 55.8 48.0 47.1 62.5 79.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 24.0 40.7 49.1 92.8 56.0 48.0 23.5 35.6 50.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 96.7 89.4 76.0 91.6 52.5 47.7 64.9 85.8 109.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 66.4 69.7 56.0 104.3 61.5 53.0 47.8 60.1 73.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------