***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 18.4 19.4 2.9 95.9 93.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 16.1 18.5 19.9 3.3 97.2 95.0 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 17.8 20.4 19.8 3.2 96.8 94.8 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 13.5 16.3 17.6 2.9 96.7 94.7 10.2 11.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 14.3 15.9 17.4 2.6 94.5 92.0 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 13.3 14.8 15.3 2.6 94.2 92.3 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 16.0 17.9 19.7 3.0 95.9 93.5 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 9.0 12.1 15.9 3.3 98.0 96.4 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 15.7 17.6 18.0 2.8 96.4 94.1 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 15.5 17.7 16.6 3.1 97.5 95.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 15.5 17.5 17.2 3.0 97.1 95.2 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 13.3 15.4 16.4 3.0 97.3 95.6 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 14.5 15.4 15.3 1.9 87.9 84.3 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 16.2 17.7 17.8 2.5 93.5 90.6 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.7 18.9 18.7 2.8 97.8 96.2 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 15.7 17.0 16.2 2.2 91.6 88.7 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 16.6 18.9 19.5 3.2 96.9 94.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 14.1 16.1 15.4 2.7 96.1 93.3 11.8 12.7 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 15.8 18.0 20.0 3.3 97.3 95.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 9.9 12.2 13.8 3.3 98.2 96.1 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 15.4 17.2 19.2 2.9 95.9 93.6 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 15.6 17.3 19.4 2.9 94.9 92.2 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 15.1 17.0 19.8 3.3 96.9 94.8 13.0 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 16.0 18.1 17.6 2.7 95.1 92.3 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 15.2 16.7 18.2 2.6 94.7 92.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 14.0 14.5 14.5 1.6 83.0 80.8 12.2 13.0 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 15.1 16.6 18.6 2.6 94.2 91.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 14.6 16.3 17.9 2.7 96.1 94.0 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 12.9 15.8 15.0 3.1 97.7 95.3 10.0 11.1 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 16.1 18.4 20.1 3.3 97.1 95.0 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------