***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 16.1 18.5 1.0 70.4 65.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.1 16.1 18.7 1.1 71.3 65.2 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 17.7 18.1 18.6 1.2 73.6 67.4 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.3 16.6 1.0 72.8 67.1 10.7 11.8 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.4 14.6 16.5 1.2 75.3 68.7 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 13.3 13.7 14.7 1.2 78.0 70.5 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.9 18.5 0.9 68.0 62.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.8 9.3 14.8 1.3 77.4 70.5 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 15.6 15.9 16.9 1.3 76.2 69.2 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.8 15.4 1.3 76.5 69.5 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.8 16.1 1.4 78.7 71.2 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 13.4 14.0 15.8 1.4 80.0 72.5 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 14.8 15.3 15.3 1.4 80.1 72.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.3 16.6 0.9 68.1 63.3 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 16.6 16.9 17.4 1.2 76.1 69.6 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 15.7 16.3 15.9 1.3 79.3 71.6 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.3 18.2 0.9 67.5 62.0 14.5 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.2 14.6 14.7 1.2 75.1 68.6 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 15.7 16.0 18.7 1.2 72.9 66.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.0 10.4 13.0 1.3 75.5 69.6 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.6 17.9 1.2 74.0 67.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.2 18.0 0.8 66.0 61.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.7 18.4 1.2 72.8 66.6 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 15.8 16.1 16.5 1.1 72.5 66.5 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 15.2 15.4 17.0 1.0 69.6 65.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 14.5 15.2 15.5 1.5 81.8 74.6 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.4 17.7 0.9 68.5 63.9 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.6 16.9 1.1 75.1 68.5 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.1 13.9 1.1 73.7 67.9 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 15.4 16.3 18.8 1.2 72.1 66.0 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------