***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 16.4 18.2 0.8 65.1 60.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.3 18.4 0.9 66.5 60.9 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.8 18.5 18.3 0.9 68.6 62.8 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.0 16.5 0.8 67.6 62.1 11.7 12.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.4 16.3 0.9 69.7 63.6 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.2 14.6 1.0 72.5 65.5 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.3 18.3 0.7 63.6 58.8 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.5 9.5 14.6 1.0 70.1 63.5 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.4 16.6 1.0 70.6 64.2 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.1 15.1 1.0 70.3 63.8 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.2 15.9 1.1 72.7 65.6 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 13.8 13.9 15.6 1.1 72.1 65.2 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 15.5 15.6 15.1 1.1 73.1 66.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.4 16.2 0.6 61.4 57.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.4 17.5 17.3 1.0 70.5 63.9 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 16.7 16.8 15.7 1.1 73.2 66.0 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.7 17.9 0.6 62.3 57.6 15.2 16.1 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.5 14.4 0.9 68.3 62.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.2 18.4 0.9 67.9 62.0 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.5 12.7 0.9 67.7 61.7 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.3 17.6 0.9 68.8 63.0 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.6 17.7 0.5 60.4 56.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.6 18.1 0.9 67.7 62.1 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.3 16.2 0.8 66.5 61.3 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.1 16.7 0.7 64.6 60.2 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.1 15.1 15.2 1.1 72.6 66.2 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.1 17.3 0.6 62.7 58.8 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.3 16.8 0.9 69.5 63.3 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.5 13.6 0.8 66.5 61.0 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.7 18.5 0.9 67.3 61.6 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------