***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 9999.0 17.5 18.7 1.5 88.8 83.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 16.0 17.0 19.0 1.6 90.5 85.5 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 17.8 18.7 18.9 1.7 90.9 86.3 16.2 16.8 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 13.0 14.0 16.9 1.4 91.4 86.1 11.5 12.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 14.5 15.3 16.7 1.4 90.9 85.6 13.1 13.6 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 13.4 14.3 14.9 1.5 93.4 88.3 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 15.9 16.6 18.9 1.5 87.4 82.4 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 8.6 9.7 15.1 1.7 94.5 89.8 7.2 7.8 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 15.6 16.5 17.1 1.5 92.2 87.0 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 15.5 16.5 15.7 1.6 93.6 88.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 15.5 16.6 16.4 1.6 94.4 89.7 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 13.4 14.6 15.9 1.7 94.9 90.4 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 14.8 15.6 15.3 1.3 91.2 86.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 16.1 16.6 16.8 1.1 83.1 78.1 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 16.9 17.9 17.8 1.5 93.6 88.1 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 15.8 16.8 15.9 1.4 92.3 87.1 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 16.4 17.1 18.6 1.5 88.7 83.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 14.1 14.9 14.8 1.4 90.9 85.4 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 15.8 16.6 19.0 1.7 91.3 86.4 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 9.9 10.9 13.1 1.6 93.0 87.9 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 15.5 16.3 18.2 1.5 90.7 85.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 15.4 16.0 18.4 1.3 85.7 80.5 14.1 14.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 15.2 15.9 18.7 1.6 90.3 85.5 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 15.9 16.7 16.7 1.4 88.4 83.3 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 15.4 16.1 17.3 1.3 88.1 82.8 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 14.4 15.0 15.2 1.3 89.7 85.4 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 15.4 16.1 17.9 1.3 86.3 81.1 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 14.6 15.5 17.2 1.4 91.9 86.4 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 12.6 13.5 14.1 1.5 91.2 85.7 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 16.2 17.0 19.2 1.7 90.6 85.8 14.7 15.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------