***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 9999.0 30.1 29.7 2.2 87.3 83.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 28.7 29.7 30.1 2.6 89.9 85.7 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 28.8 29.8 30.1 2.5 89.6 85.6 26.8 27.6 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 21.9 23.0 28.0 2.2 89.3 85.1 19.9 20.7 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 29.5 30.7 28.3 2.4 90.8 86.7 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 27.9 29.3 25.9 2.3 92.4 87.5 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 28.6 29.4 29.7 2.3 87.4 83.2 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 17.3 18.6 26.6 2.5 92.9 88.8 15.3 16.0 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 29.0 30.2 28.7 2.4 91.1 87.0 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 28.7 30.1 27.3 2.5 92.3 88.2 26.6 27.4 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 29.1 30.5 28.0 2.5 92.8 88.9 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 28.2 29.6 27.6 2.6 93.4 89.4 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 29.4 30.9 27.3 2.6 93.7 89.3 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 28.3 28.9 27.9 2.0 84.9 80.8 26.7 27.4 28.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 29.9 31.1 28.8 2.2 90.9 86.7 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 30.1 31.6 27.7 2.5 92.6 88.5 27.7 28.6 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 28.1 29.0 29.6 2.3 88.0 83.4 26.3 27.1 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 27.9 29.1 26.3 2.4 91.3 87.0 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 28.3 29.3 30.3 2.7 90.5 86.4 26.4 27.2 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 23.7 25.0 24.3 2.4 92.5 88.0 21.5 22.3 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 29.1 30.0 29.4 2.3 89.1 85.0 26.9 27.7 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 28.6 29.3 29.3 2.2 86.3 81.9 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 28.5 29.5 30.0 2.6 89.7 85.6 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 28.2 29.1 28.1 2.3 88.6 84.4 26.3 27.0 27.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 29.0 29.8 28.2 2.1 86.8 82.5 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 28.8 30.2 27.2 2.6 93.2 88.7 26.8 27.6 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 28.4 29.1 28.7 2.1 85.9 81.6 26.6 27.3 28.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 30.0 31.1 28.3 2.1 89.6 85.4 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 23.3 24.5 25.3 2.4 91.2 86.7 21.1 21.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 28.6 29.5 30.2 2.6 89.9 85.8 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------