***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 29.3 28.8 1.6 70.1 65.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 29.0 29.2 29.2 1.9 74.1 68.5 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.3 29.3 1.9 73.7 68.2 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 21.7 22.0 27.5 1.7 73.0 67.7 19.1 20.3 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.0 27.6 1.9 75.0 69.1 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 28.2 29.0 25.6 2.1 79.5 72.2 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 28.7 28.8 28.9 1.6 70.9 65.9 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 17.6 18.4 26.1 2.3 79.3 72.3 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 29.1 29.5 28.0 2.0 75.3 69.1 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 28.8 29.4 26.7 2.2 77.5 70.8 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 29.2 30.0 27.4 2.2 78.8 72.2 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 28.2 29.1 27.2 2.4 80.2 73.2 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 29.4 30.4 26.7 2.3 80.2 73.1 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 28.7 28.7 27.2 1.6 69.9 65.4 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 29.8 30.2 28.0 1.7 75.3 69.4 27.3 28.5 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.9 27.1 2.2 78.9 72.2 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 28.2 28.4 28.7 1.7 71.5 66.4 25.8 26.9 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 28.1 28.6 25.8 2.1 76.2 69.7 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 28.5 28.9 29.4 2.1 75.1 69.4 26.1 27.2 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 23.9 24.6 23.8 2.2 78.0 71.1 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 29.1 29.4 28.7 1.8 73.0 67.5 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 28.7 28.8 28.4 1.6 69.8 65.5 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 28.8 29.1 29.1 2.0 74.2 68.8 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 28.5 28.7 27.4 1.9 73.4 67.7 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 28.9 29.0 27.3 1.5 69.5 65.0 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 29.1 30.0 26.7 2.3 80.3 73.0 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 28.5 28.5 27.8 1.4 68.2 64.1 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.3 27.8 1.8 74.9 69.2 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 23.5 24.0 24.8 2.1 76.0 69.5 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 28.8 29.1 29.3 1.9 73.8 68.3 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------