***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 29.2 28.8 1.2 65.8 61.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 29.6 29.6 29.1 1.5 69.3 64.0 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 29.8 29.8 29.1 1.5 68.8 63.6 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 22.1 23.3 27.4 1.3 67.9 63.0 20.1 21.7 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 29.7 30.9 27.5 1.4 69.1 63.9 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 29.4 29.8 25.5 1.7 74.1 66.6 26.2 27.7 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.6 29.3 28.8 1.2 66.3 61.8 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.4 18.7 25.9 1.6 71.4 65.0 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 30.0 30.2 27.8 1.5 69.3 63.9 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 28.9 30.1 26.5 1.5 70.2 64.3 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 30.2 30.7 27.2 1.7 72.0 65.9 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.9 27.0 1.7 73.1 66.3 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 30.7 31.2 26.6 1.8 74.1 66.9 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.0 26.9 1.0 63.5 59.6 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 31.1 31.3 28.1 1.4 70.9 65.1 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 31.2 31.6 27.0 1.6 72.3 66.0 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.6 28.5 1.2 66.3 61.5 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.0 29.0 25.5 1.4 68.4 62.8 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 29.3 29.4 29.3 1.6 70.2 64.7 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.9 23.5 1.4 69.6 63.3 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 30.0 30.1 28.5 1.4 67.8 62.9 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.6 29.2 28.3 1.1 64.4 60.1 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 29.4 29.4 29.0 1.5 69.0 63.8 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.3 29.0 27.1 1.3 66.7 61.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.8 27.3 1.1 65.2 60.9 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.6 26.7 1.8 73.9 66.7 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.1 27.8 1.0 63.8 59.9 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 31.2 31.3 27.8 1.4 69.2 63.9 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 24.2 24.4 1.3 67.8 62.2 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 29.4 29.4 29.3 1.5 69.2 64.0 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------