***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 9999.0 3.5 3.9 26.1 29.4 19.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 4.1 4.4 3.7 29.3 26.5 20.4 6.3 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 4.7 5.1 4.0 29.5 27.3 20.1 6.8 13.2 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 2.6 3.5 4.0 29.1 30.8 22.4 3.8 9.0 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 3.2 3.0 3.9 26.3 27.8 20.7 4.3 10.7 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 3.0 4.2 5.2 32.6 33.0 24.4 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 3.4 3.0 3.6 27.0 25.0 19.6 5.1 11.1 20.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 4.2 4.2 4.5 30.5 28.1 22.1 5.7 12.7 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 3.6 3.8 4.0 27.8 28.4 20.9 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 4.8 4.4 4.6 28.0 26.8 21.1 6.1 12.7 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 2.8 2.4 3.2 23.2 26.2 19.8 4.0 9.0 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 2.7 2.9 3.3 26.9 28.4 21.2 3.8 7.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 2.2 2.3 3.7 24.6 25.6 19.4 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 4.7 5.2 4.9 31.9 27.1 20.9 7.0 14.0 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.8 2.4 3.6 33.5 34.0 23.7 2.3 5.5 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 2.2 2.0 3.5 24.6 25.7 19.7 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 3.4 3.8 3.3 28.2 26.1 20.0 5.4 10.5 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 3.5 3.0 5.3 30.6 27.7 22.6 4.2 9.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 3.8 4.2 3.9 30.4 27.6 20.8 5.5 11.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 4.1 4.4 6.0 34.9 28.4 23.2 5.2 9.5 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 3.9 4.7 3.8 28.2 29.7 20.5 5.5 10.9 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 3.8 3.6 3.3 28.7 26.2 20.8 5.3 10.7 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 4.7 5.5 4.1 30.9 28.6 20.7 6.6 12.1 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 5.4 5.5 4.7 30.5 27.1 21.5 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 4.0 4.7 4.6 27.3 28.2 20.5 5.8 11.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 3.1 3.2 2.9 23.3 24.9 18.5 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 4.7 6.1 4.5 26.8 29.1 20.7 7.2 13.0 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 2.5 3.3 3.8 30.7 31.9 23.1 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 5.5 4.9 5.6 32.2 26.7 22.4 7.0 13.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 3.7 4.1 4.0 29.4 26.9 20.3 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------