***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 16.6 9.6 85.7 57.9 40.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.5 14.6 11.3 84.5 58.9 45.1 7.5 11.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.8 11.7 9.5 77.7 55.0 41.0 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 9.3 7.9 63.3 50.2 38.3 5.4 9.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.3 8.2 7.9 62.9 50.9 39.5 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.3 11.5 61.4 49.3 40.0 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.8 12.3 90.2 60.6 45.9 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.2 16.3 9.7 72.9 53.9 44.3 7.5 14.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.5 8.6 66.1 50.7 38.6 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.1 10.2 69.2 52.4 42.5 5.5 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.5 7.2 7.2 63.0 51.7 41.2 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.6 9.2 7.1 68.8 52.9 41.7 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.9 8.4 62.0 50.6 39.4 2.8 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.7 17.0 12.9 78.2 56.3 46.2 8.0 14.2 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.3 7.1 68.7 53.1 38.8 2.3 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.6 7.5 59.1 49.0 38.4 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.0 11.0 82.4 58.4 45.5 4.4 8.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 14.0 12.6 72.3 53.2 44.5 6.7 12.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.9 11.8 10.5 80.0 56.7 43.3 4.8 9.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.7 13.0 13.6 73.1 52.2 44.0 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.5 11.7 8.0 70.9 52.4 37.8 6.8 11.1 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.8 10.2 77.4 56.9 45.3 5.4 9.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.0 12.9 10.2 76.0 54.5 41.9 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.6 20.4 11.7 75.0 54.4 44.5 11.4 18.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.3 11.2 10.5 77.8 54.7 40.4 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.9 7.1 67.8 52.9 39.0 2.0 4.4 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 5.7 13.5 11.5 86.2 58.0 42.0 6.0 10.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.8 7.3 61.3 50.7 38.6 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 18.4 13.3 73.1 52.8 44.8 9.3 16.8 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 7.2 15.4 11.2 85.5 58.7 44.2 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------