***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 9.5 7.0 65.3 51.3 35.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 3.8 8.5 7.6 66.8 49.6 35.1 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 4.4 10.1 7.6 66.8 51.2 34.8 5.4 9.7 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.2 7.3 6.8 62.7 51.0 38.3 3.6 7.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.8 7.0 61.3 50.9 36.8 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.5 7.0 11.6 77.6 54.7 38.6 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 5.2 11.0 7.7 69.0 50.2 36.9 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 7.3 14.7 8.7 69.2 51.9 37.6 8.3 13.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.7 7.7 62.7 51.3 36.0 3.0 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.6 13.1 9.6 70.6 53.6 38.3 6.0 11.5 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.2 6.9 6.5 65.4 52.2 36.6 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 4.0 8.3 6.0 64.4 50.4 34.6 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.7 6.5 7.6 70.6 52.0 34.8 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.9 12.5 9.9 70.9 51.4 36.6 6.0 11.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.2 5.7 5.9 67.6 53.3 38.9 2.2 5.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.6 8.0 7.0 69.9 52.7 36.3 4.1 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.8 8.2 7.9 69.6 50.8 37.5 4.2 7.9 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 5.6 12.0 11.9 74.7 53.7 38.9 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 4.5 9.6 7.6 67.0 50.5 34.8 5.4 9.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.5 11.1 12.6 73.9 51.5 38.7 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.2 9.6 6.9 61.8 50.7 34.9 4.4 9.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.4 9.1 7.9 67.5 50.5 36.6 4.7 9.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 5.6 11.7 8.1 69.7 52.6 35.8 6.0 10.7 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.4 11.8 10.2 72.9 53.3 37.3 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.0 7.6 8.0 63.4 50.0 37.0 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.1 6.6 5.9 67.8 51.1 34.0 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.9 10.0 8.2 67.9 51.5 37.2 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.9 7.7 6.9 70.6 54.5 38.9 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 7.3 15.8 12.3 76.4 53.2 39.2 7.9 14.5 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 5.0 10.2 7.4 66.0 50.0 35.0 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------