***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 13.4 7.0 98.1 63.9 44.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 12.9 8.5 108.6 67.0 49.3 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.5 7.1 100.7 64.1 45.4 3.5 8.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.7 16.5 6.5 90.5 61.6 41.9 4.8 10.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 5.3 16.3 6.6 92.2 61.5 41.0 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.5 17.0 10.9 98.9 65.1 43.7 4.1 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.7 8.7 106.6 66.8 50.1 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 10.7 28.9 8.7 103.7 64.6 45.0 11.5 19.5 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.9 16.3 7.2 98.0 63.0 41.2 5.1 10.3 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.0 22.2 8.9 101.6 63.9 44.4 6.9 13.8 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 4.1 13.9 6.1 92.3 61.4 40.9 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 6.7 19.2 5.9 98.6 63.5 42.9 7.3 12.9 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.1 12.6 6.7 90.1 62.0 41.3 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.8 20.2 10.1 111.0 67.3 47.9 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.7 10.0 5.9 103.0 65.5 40.5 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 4.4 13.2 6.4 91.4 62.0 41.0 5.0 9.2 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.3 13.7 9.0 118.7 70.0 50.0 4.0 7.4 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.4 21.1 10.9 105.4 65.1 47.5 7.7 13.6 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 16.3 8.2 109.5 67.0 48.4 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.8 18.1 12.0 100.3 62.8 46.2 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.9 13.9 6.3 93.8 62.3 41.2 5.0 9.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.7 21.5 8.8 124.4 71.3 49.9 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.5 14.4 8.0 111.2 67.6 47.6 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.8 18.0 9.3 106.2 65.6 47.4 6.4 11.4 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.1 7.7 90.5 61.5 43.6 4.3 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.2 10.0 5.2 98.4 64.0 41.6 4.3 7.1 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.4 8.2 96.8 63.2 44.9 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.8 11.2 6.7 101.5 65.1 41.1 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 10.7 23.9 11.4 102.5 64.0 47.3 11.2 17.3 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.7 15.0 8.1 104.0 65.5 47.9 3.8 8.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------