***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 49.6 27.4 62.6 37.0 32.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 41.8 48.0 31.2 68.7 37.6 33.3 45.0 56.4 69.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 39.8 45.0 28.2 63.7 36.4 33.0 42.0 57.5 75.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 33.3 36.9 25.2 56.8 34.3 32.3 35.9 51.8 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 36.9 39.8 25.4 55.3 33.6 31.4 38.9 54.8 73.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 29.7 34.0 39.2 64.6 34.9 32.7 32.8 45.5 60.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 37.8 43.8 32.3 69.7 37.3 33.1 40.5 54.1 68.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 56.2 65.4 31.6 64.1 36.0 33.2 61.6 83.5 107.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 34.7 38.2 27.5 58.4 34.9 32.1 36.7 50.5 66.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 48.2 53.3 33.2 62.1 35.2 32.8 50.9 69.7 90.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 33.0 35.2 22.9 55.1 34.3 32.0 34.5 47.9 63.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 30.9 36.1 22.3 58.6 35.4 32.3 34.1 49.0 66.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 21.8 25.3 26.4 56.4 32.4 30.0 25.6 36.6 49.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 54.5 63.0 37.8 68.8 39.6 36.6 56.3 74.1 93.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 18.4 24.0 22.5 63.3 38.7 35.0 20.1 32.3 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 26.7 28.6 24.5 55.6 32.6 30.7 28.8 40.1 52.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 35.2 43.0 31.2 70.7 39.6 34.8 38.2 50.4 64.0 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 46.6 51.8 40.7 66.7 35.6 33.6 49.4 65.1 82.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 42.0 48.1 30.2 67.5 37.2 33.1 45.0 58.1 72.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 39.2 45.3 44.1 68.1 34.0 32.4 44.5 58.6 74.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 37.0 41.0 25.0 58.6 35.0 31.9 39.3 55.2 73.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 37.3 45.4 30.2 69.4 39.1 35.2 39.9 55.3 72.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 46.3 52.7 30.5 66.8 38.4 34.1 48.9 60.6 73.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 53.7 59.5 35.9 66.7 37.3 34.7 54.9 73.1 93.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 36.2 39.4 30.8 59.9 34.3 31.6 38.5 51.6 66.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 23.5 27.9 21.1 57.1 32.9 30.1 27.9 37.8 48.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 43.2 48.8 32.5 63.9 36.7 33.0 45.7 60.1 75.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 20.3 24.2 24.8 60.7 36.8 33.9 21.9 33.1 46.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 57.1 65.1 42.5 67.8 35.5 33.7 62.1 82.9 106.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 42.1 48.1 30.6 67.3 36.9 32.8 45.1 58.0 71.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------