***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 47 53 100 15.4 15.4 17.6 1.0 67.3 66.1 14.0 14.7 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 47 53 100 15.3 15.3 17.6 0.9 65.6 64.7 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 16.3 16.9 17.7 0.8 64.6 63.8 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 12.5 12.5 15.4 0.9 66.1 65.1 10.2 11.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 13.8 13.8 15.9 1.0 68.0 67.0 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 47 53 100 12.8 12.7 13.0 0.7 65.3 64.5 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 48 52 100 15.4 15.4 17.7 0.9 65.7 64.7 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 8.3 8.4 13.2 1.0 70.2 69.2 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.4 16.2 1.2 73.6 72.3 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.1 14.3 1.1 71.2 70.1 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 15.1 15.2 15.6 1.2 72.9 71.6 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 12.9 12.9 14.2 1.0 69.9 68.9 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 14.5 14.6 14.6 1.2 75.3 73.8 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.8 15.8 1.0 70.0 68.9 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.5 17.3 1.2 73.9 72.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 15.3 15.3 15.0 1.0 70.5 69.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 47 53 100 15.9 16.0 17.5 1.0 67.2 66.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.6 13.6 1.0 68.5 67.6 11.8 12.7 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 49 51 100 15.2 15.2 17.5 0.9 65.1 64.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 9.3 9.4 11.7 1.0 68.6 67.7 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.0 17.1 1.0 69.2 68.0 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 14.3 14.9 17.5 1.0 66.7 65.7 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 13.9 14.5 17.4 0.9 66.4 65.5 13.0 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.5 15.8 1.0 69.3 68.4 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 14.6 14.5 16.6 0.9 65.8 64.8 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.7 13.7 13.3 0.9 67.7 66.8 12.2 13.0 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 47 53 100 14.5 14.5 17.1 0.9 66.3 65.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.0 14.0 15.8 0.9 67.5 66.4 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.3 12.9 1.0 69.9 69.0 10.0 11.1 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 14.8 15.4 17.7 0.9 65.1 64.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------